Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Cabo Verde
  • Djibouti
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Libya
  • Egypt
  • Congo (Kinshasa)
  • Morocco
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Cote d'Ivoire
  • Guinea
  • Nigeria
  • Namibia

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $653,444$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{656,445.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 123.2)}}\) (asimptote \(656,445.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15,705$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(492 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,452.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 122.8)}}\) (asimptote \(17,452.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $53,544$ on 2020-09-16

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,978$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(164 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,383.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 148.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,383.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $47$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 130.9)}}\) (asimptote \(52.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $501$ on 2020-09-16

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,399$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(75.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,295.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 68.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,295.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(15.2 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(59.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5$ on 2020-09-16

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,000$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(453 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,520.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 112.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,520.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(12.5 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 76.7)}}\) (asimptote \(88.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $421$ on 2020-09-16

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,936$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(25.3 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,235.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 178.2)}}\) (asimptote \(59,235.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $394$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{977.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 177.8)}}\) (asimptote \(977.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,044$ on 2020-09-16

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $101,500$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,065.2}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 96.6)}}\) (asimptote \(100,065.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,696$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(592 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,648.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,648.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,255$ on 2020-09-16

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,414$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,114.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 90.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,114.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $267$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(4.73 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{272.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.4)}}\) (asimptote \(272.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $320$ on 2020-09-16

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $92,016$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(751 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,686$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(13.9 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,362$ on 2020-09-16

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Congo (Kinshasa) recovered 94%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 88%
Egypt recovered 83%
Guinea recovered 72%
Nigeria recovered 66%
Namibia recovered 52%
Zimbabwe recovered 51%
Rwanda recovered 14%
Kenya recovered 11%

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,132$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,896.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 98.8)}}\) (asimptote \(18,896.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $120$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(20.3 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 83.8)}}\) (asimptote \(126.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $723$ on 2020-09-16

Guinea⮸

Population $13,132,795$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,154$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,844.9}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 94.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,844.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $63$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(12.4 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{75.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 88.1)}}\) (asimptote \(75.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $479$ on 2020-09-16

Nigeria⮸

Population $206,139,589$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,604$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(6.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,618.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 95.8)}}\) (asimptote \(58,618.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,091$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(213 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,095.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 68.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,095.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,641$ on 2020-09-16

Namibia⮸

Population $2,540,905$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,964$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(19.6 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,250.5}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 162.4)}}\) (asimptote \(13,250.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-07-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $108$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(6.54 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{120.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 48.1)}}\) (asimptote \(120.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,354$ on 2020-09-16