Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $653,444$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{656,445.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 123.2)}}\) (asimptote \(656,445.9\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15,705$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(492 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,452.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 122.8)}}\) (asimptote \(17,452.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $53,544$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,978$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(164 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,383.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 148.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,383.0\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $47$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 130.9)}}\) (asimptote \(52.9\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $501$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,399$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(75.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,295.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 68.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,295.2\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(15.2 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(59.2\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,000$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(453 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,520.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 112.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,520.8\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(12.5 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 76.7)}}\) (asimptote \(88.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $421$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $24,936$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(25.3 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,235.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 178.2)}}\) (asimptote \(59,235.9\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $394$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{977.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 177.8)}}\) (asimptote \(977.5\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,044$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $101,500$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,065.2}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 96.6)}}\) (asimptote \(100,065.2\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,696$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(592 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,648.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,648.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,255$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,414$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,114.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 90.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,114.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $267$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(4.73 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{272.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.4)}}\) (asimptote \(272.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $320$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $92,016$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(751 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,686$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(13.9 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,362$ on 2020-09-16